The Arms Race In The Balkans Has Reached A New Phase: Croatia Acquiring Korean Ballistic Missiles And Admitting That Its Rafales Are Incomplete

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The Croatian government is, according to reports from Zagreb media, on the verge of approving a procurement package worth €556.9 million. The largest portion of that sum is going toward South Korean systems that will give the Croatian military, for the first time, the capability to deliver precise strikes with tactical ballistic missiles, while at the same time launching the first phase of modernizing the already acquired Rafales. The message is crystal clear: Zagreb has no intention of sitting on the sidelines in the regional arms race — it is raising the stakes and showing it is ready to respond in kind.

The most valuable item, €435.2 million excluding VAT, covers 18 self-propelled multiple launch rocket systems of the Chunmoo K239 type from South Korean company Hanwha Aerospace, complete with ammunition, spare parts, training, simulators, and vehicles. Most of the systems are expected to arrive in 2028, with the remainder in 2029. The system is modular and carries two containers, giving it significant flexibility. Configurations are possible with guided rockets of 239 mm and 280 mm caliber, as well as with tactical ballistic missiles of around 600 mm caliber (CTM-290) with a range exceeding 300 kilometers. Media outlets also mention the extended-range CTM-X option which, according to estimates, could exceed 500 kilometers. These projectiles exit the atmosphere, reach altitudes of 30 to 50 kilometers, and then return at hypersonic speeds of around Mach 5, making them extremely difficult targets for existing air defense systems in the region. Croatia already has HIMARS systems on order, but U.S. restrictions on longer-range munitions forced Zagreb to follow the same path as Poland, Norway, and Estonia — combining HIMARS with the Chunmoo. The advantage of the Korean system is roughly double the firepower per launcher and the ability to mix different types of munitions on the same vehicle. The contract also includes integration of the Polish Topaz C2 system, showing that Croatia is relying on proven solutions within the NATO framework.

The second item, worth €88.5 million, marks the start of modernizing the squadron of second-hand Rafale F3R aircraft toward the F4 standard. Specifically, this involves installing the Spectra self-protection system and the OSF optical-sensor system. The contract with Dassault will be paid through 2030. This is at the same time an indirect but very clear admission by the Croatian Ministry of Defense that the aircraft were delivered without these key sensors and self-protection systems. The official explanation now being put forward is that it made no sense to pay for older versions of the sensors only to replace them a few years later with newer ones. An AESA radar is not mentioned in this cycle — that remains for later, more expensive phases. This information effectively contradicts earlier statements by Croatian officials, including Prime Minister Plenković, about more complete, greater, better, and more interoperable equipment compared to the ordered Serbian Rafales. It turns out that the Croatian aircraft have been flying the whole time without systems considered standard for modern combat platforms.

The third part of the package, worth €33.2 million, covers the upgrade of the Croatian Air Force’s combat communication system and the modernization of five long-range AN/FPS-117 radars, including Link 16 and encrypted voice communications. The work is being carried out by Thales with the participation of the Croatian company Odašiljači i veze, which is presented as a certain transfer of knowledge and competencies.

Croatian media explicitly link the Chunmoo acquisition to Serbian procurements: the Israeli PULS system and Chinese quasi-ballistic CM-400AKG/B missiles on modernized MiG-29s. President Milanović had already announced earlier that Croatia would “in some way” respond to the PULS. Instead of acquiring a longer-range defensive system, which has been blocked for political reasons, Zagreb is choosing an offensive means of deterrence and potential retaliation. By 2028–2030, the Croatian military is expected to field Leopard tanks, additional Black Hawk helicopters, HIMARS, Chunmoo, and Caesar MK2 self-propelled howitzers. A more capable longer-range air defense system and corvettes remain on the list, but this procurement is already changing the calculations.

This is not just another procurement in a series. The Chunmoo with tactical ballistic missiles qualitatively changes Croatia’s ability to threaten targets deep in a potential adversary’s territory. Combined with already existing and planned systems, the region is entering a new phase of mutual deterrence where ranges are measured in hundreds of kilometers rather than tens. Croatia has decided not to wait and not to slow down. The arms race in the Balkans is accelerating and entering a phase in which every subsequent move carries ever greater strategic consequences.

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